Scenario modelling to support development of a long term air quality policy framework for Scotland

1. As part of wider work to develop a long term policy framework to replace the Scottish Government’s existing air quality strategy Cleaner Air for Scotland 2 (CAFS2), which expires at the end of 2026, air quality objectives in Scotland are being reviewed. Although all current objectives are being met across the country, an increasing body of research shows that air pollution, even at the low levels currently experienced in much of Scotland, continues to harm human health across all life stages and in a multitude of different ways. 2. The Scottish Government’s aim is to propose challenging but achievable new objectives, thereby delivering further benefits for human health. In the short term, we wish to assess the feasibility of matching or where possible going further than the air quality targets for nitrogen dioxide and fine particulate matter, two pollutants of concern for human health, which are set out in the EU Directive 2024/2881 on ambient air quality and cleaner air for Europe and are to be achieved by 2030. In the medium to longer term (i.e. the 10-15 years after 2030), we wish to consider the feasibility of going beyond the EU targets and working towards the considerably more stringent World Health Organisation guidelines, which were updated in 2021. Any proposals will be subject to public consultation and approval by Ministers prior to being adopted. 3. The shorter term assessment does not form part of the requirements for this project, which instead focuses on the scope for further tightening of objectives beyond 2030.